Pending Homes Sales are up for 5th Straight Month

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August 5, 2009-

Pending home sales are up for the fifth consecutive month, the first time in six years for such a streak, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in June, rose 3.6% to 94.6 from an upwardly revised reading of 91.3 in May, and is 6.7% above June 2008 when it was 88.7. The last time there were five consecutive monthly gains was in July 2003.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a combination of positive market factors is fueling the gains. “Historically low mortgage interest rates, affordable home prices and large selection are encouraging buyers who’ve been on the sidelines. Activity has been consistently much stronger for lower priced homes,” he said. ”Because it may take as long as two months to close on a home after signing a contract, first-time buyers must act fairly soon to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit because they must close on the sale by November 30.”
The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast rose 0.4% to 81.2 in June and is 5.8% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index increased 0.8% to 89.9 and is 11.6% above June 2008. The index in the South jumped 7.1% to 100.7 in June and is 8.9% higher than a year ago. In the West the index rose 2.9% to 100.4 but is 0.2% below June 2008.
NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, is hopeful that a recently elevated level of contract cancellations will ease. “Last month, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae clarified that appraisals should be done by professionals with clear local expertise,” he said. “This should mitigate the situation of many valuations done by out-of-area appraisers coming in below the price negotiated between buyers and sellers. Hopefully, in the months ahead, we’ll see an even closer relationship between contract activity and closed transactions.” McMillan said NAR is continuing to press the appraisal issue. “We have asked Congress and the Federal Housing Finance Agency to immediately implement an 18-month moratorium on the new appraisal rules to further address unintended consequences of the new guidelines,” he said.
NAR’s Housing Affordability Index (HAI) remains very favorable. The affordability index stood at 159.2 in July, down from record peaks in recent months but it remains 36.6 percentage points above a year ago. Under these conditions the typical family would devote 15.7% of gross income to mortgage principal and interest, well below the standard allowance of 25%. The HAI is a broad measure of housing affordability using consistent values and assumptions over time, which examines the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income.
“A monthly rise in home prices and somewhat higher mortgage interest rates led to a modest decline in affordability in June, but it was still the sixth highest index on record dating back to 1970,” Yun said. “Because housing is so affordable in today’s market, job security and the first-time buyer tax credit are bigger factors in influencing home sales.”
A median-income family, earning $60,700, could afford a home costing $289,100 in June with a 20% downpayment, assuming 25% of gross income is devoted to mortgage principal and interest. Affordability conditions for first-time buyers with the same income and small downpayments are roughly 80% of what a median-income family can afford. The affordable price was much higher than the median existing single-family home price in June, which was $181,600.
Yun expects existing-home sales to gradually rise over the balance of the year, with conditions varying around the country. “It appears home sales are on a sounder footing and inventory is gradually being absorbed.”
For more information, visit http://www.realtor.org/.

RISMEDIA

Loan Modification Plan: 7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

Brought to you by Kim Duclos of Coldwell Banker Wardley

The White House releases fresh details on its plan to save the housing market By Luke Mullins Posted March 4, 2009

At the heart of the President Barack Obama's ambitious plan to rescue the housing market is the conviction that restructuring distressed mortgages will keep struggling borrowers in their homes and help insert a floor beneath plummeting property values. With $75 billion dedicated to reworking troubled loans, that's a big bet—especially considering that a top banking regulator said last December that almost 53 percent of loans modified in the first quarter of 2008 went bad again within six months. But supporters argue that mortgage modifications need to be properly engineered to work—and many early ones weren't. To that end, the Obama administration on Wednesday unveiled fresh details on its plan to restructure at-risk loans and help as many as four million home owners avoid foreclosure. Here are seven things you need to know about Obama's loan modification program.

1. Payments, not prices: The plan centers on the belief that struggling borrowers will stay in their homes—even as values decline sharply—as long as they can make their monthly payments. Although not everyone agrees with this, billionaire investor Warren Buffett endorsed the philosophy in his most recent letter to shareholders. "Commentary about the current housing crisis often ignores the crucial fact that most foreclosures do not occur because a house is worth less than its mortgage (so-called “upside-down” loans)," Buffett wrote. "Rather, foreclosures take place because borrowers can’t pay the monthly payment that they agreed to pay."

2. Thirty-one percent: To that end, the administration's plan requires participating loan servicers to reduce monthly payments to no more than 38 percent of the borrower's gross monthly income. The government would then chip in to bring payments down further, to no more than 31 percent of the borrower's monthly income. In lowering the payment, the servicer would first reduce the interest rate to as low as 2 percent. If that's not enough to hit the 31 percent threshold, they would then extend the terms of the loan to up to 40 years. If that's still not enough, the servicer would forebear loan principal at no interest. The plan does not, however, require servicers to reduce mortgage principal, which Richard Green, the director of the Lusk Center for Real Estate at USC, considers a shortcoming. "For underwater loans, if you don't write down the balance to be less than the value of the house, people still have an incentive to default," Green says. "Writing down the principal first instead of last—which is what [the Obama administration is] proposing—makes sense to me."

3. Cash incentives: To encourage participation, servicers will be paid $1,000 for each modification and will get an additional $1,000 payout each year for as many as three years, as long as the borrower continues making payments. Borrowers, meanwhile, can get up to $1,000 knocked off the principal of their loan each year for as many as five years if they make their payments on time. Neither party can receive the cash incentives until the modified loan payments have been made for at least three months.

4. Financial hardship: The Obama administration is pitching its plan as an effort to help responsible homeowners ensnared in the historic housing slump and painful recession—not speculators. As such, only owner-occupied, primary residences with outstanding principal balances of up to $729,750 are eligible. Occupancy status will be verified through documents, such as the borrower's credit report. In addition, the program is designed to target homeowners who are undergoing "serious hardships"—such as a loss of income—which have put them at risk of default. To participate, borrowers will have to sign an affidavit of financial hardship and verify their income with documents. "If we would have had such stringent verification over the last four or five years, we probably wouldn't be in as bad a position as we are in," says Richard Moody, the chief economist at Mission Residential. But while Moody has no objection to such verification, obtaining documents from so many homeowners could be an onerous effort. "It's going to be a very time-consuming process," he says. Only loans originated on or before Jan. 1, 2009, are eligible, and modified payments will remain in place for five years. Now that the administration's plan is out, lenders are free to begin modifying loans.

5. Net present value: To determine if a particular mortgage will be modified, the servicer will perform a so-called net present value test. The test compares the expected cash flow that the loan would generate if it is modified with the expected cash flow it would generate if it isn't. If the modified loan is expected to produce more cash flow for the mortgage holder, the servicer is to restructure the loan. Howard Glaser, a mortgage industry consultant and a U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development official during the Clinton administration, called this component of the plan "clever," arguing that it would work to ensure broad participation. "When you apply the formula, the loans that are modified are the ones that are in the best economic interest of the investors to modify," Glaser says. "The federal subsidy for the payment on the modification…tips the scale toward modification as a better deal for the investor."

6. Second liens: The Obama plan also addresses the issue of second liens—such as home equity loans or home equity lines of credit—by offering incentives to extinguish them. But key details on this component of the plan remained unclear. "Distinguishing the second lien is really important," Green says. "[But] exactly how they are going to convince the second lien holder to do this is not clear to me at all."

7. Will it work? Moody argues that while the plan may reduce foreclosures for primary residences, it could lead to a spike in defaults for another group of homeowners. Although he supports the administration's efforts to focus the initiative on primary residences, Moody notes that "it could be the case that a lot of [real estate speculators] have been just hanging on waiting to see exactly what the details are of this [plan]," Moody says. Now that it's clear the Obama plan leaves speculators out, "we could actually see a spike in foreclosures or at least mortgage defaults among this group."
Glaser, meanwhile, worries that lenders may soon be overwhelmed by inquiries from homeowners looking to participate. "Starting today, millions of borrowers are going to start to call their lenders to see whether or not they are eligible," he said. "And I'm not sure that the financial services industry has the capacity to handle these inquiries."

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